2026 Mid-Year Consumer Spending: Inflation Driving Fewer Purchases, Higher Value Orders

US consumers are spending more money than they did in 2025, but not in the way retailers expected. They’re making significantly fewer purchases and doing far more research before committing to purchases. The shift reflects inflation-driven price pressures – but pricing alone doesn’t explain it. Online prices rose just 2%-3% over the same period according to Adobe Digital Insights, a fraction of the 13% YoY jump in what shoppers actually paid per item. The rest points to shoppers trading up to pricier products, not just paying more for the same ones.

According to impact.com‘s 2026 Mid-year Industry Benchmark report, analyzing 2,319 same-store retail brands in the first half of 2026, transactions declined 7% year-over-year while average order value (AOV) jumped 16%, from $111 to $130. Despite fewer sales, consumer spending increased 8% YoY, driven mostly by higher per-item prices (up 13% YoY) rather than bigger baskets (+3% YoY).

The data reveal two overlapping trends. Click volume increased 6% YoY while conversion rates dropped 12% YoY, signaling that shoppers are taking longer to decide, comparing options, and only buying when confident. This is a fundamental shift from volume-driven purchasing to value-driven selection.

KEY TAKEAWAYS INCLUDE:

• Partner dynamics and brand response: Loyalty and Rewards partners are thriving, increasing their contribution to consumer spending from 51% to 54% and remaining the largest partner contributor. Technology Solutions partners also grew (+15% YoY in transaction volume), proving that lower-funnel, high-intent channels win when shoppers are cautious. Voucher and Coupon partners lost ground, dropping from 11% to 5% of consumer spending. The shift signals that partner roles are specializing by funnel stage. Brands are responding by rewarding partners who convert: total brand spending grew 10% year-over-year, outpacing consumer spending growth of 8% YoY. They’re shifting away from fixed-cost models (down 19% YoY) and doubling down on performance-based commissions (up 14% YoY), now representing 90% of total brand spend.

• Trading up vs. trading down: Categories are splitting into two distinct consumer behaviors. Computers & Electronics surged 38% YoY in consumer spending through volume—46% more transactions despite AOV dropping 6%. In contrast, Apparel, Shoes & Accessories saw a 17% AOV increase, offset by an 11% transaction decline, showing consumers buying less often but choosing pricier options. Arts & Entertainment also exceeded the 8% consumer spending growth benchmark through trading-down behavior. The brand implication: one partner strategy doesn’t fit both. Trading-up categories need partners focused on premium positioning; trading-down categories need partners optimized for volume and value messaging.

impact.com CMO Cristy Garcia points to what this deliberate consumer behavior means for brands: “Inflation is real, but what’s more interesting is what consumers are doing about it. They’re not just paying more for the same stuff, they’re being deliberate about quality. That requires brands to rethink their partnerships. We’re seeing a clear shift toward performance-based models because they work: they reward partners who can actually convert shoppers in a more competitive landscape. Discounts alone don’t cut it anymore. What wins is when you have the right partners at the right moment of  intent.”

impact.com is the world’s leading global infrastructure for partnership-driven commerce, transforming the way businesses grow by enabling them to discover, manage, and scale partnerships across the entire customer journey. From affiliates and influencers to content publishers, brand ambassadors, and customer advocates, impact.com empowers brands to drive trusted, performance-based growth through authentic relationships. Its award-winning products – Performance (affiliate), Creator (influencer), and Advocate (customer referral) – unify every type of partner into one integrated platform. As consumers increasingly rely on recommendations from people and communities they trust, impact.com helps brands show up where it matters most. Today, over 6,500 global brands – including Walmart, Uber, Shopify, Lenovo, L’Oréal, and Fanatics – rely on impact.com to power more than 2 million partnerships, collectively generating over $110 billion in annual gross merchandise value (GMV).