Circana’s 2025/2026 Food and Beverage Outlook Predicts Slow Growth Amid Shifting Consumer Priorities

Circana LLC released new Circana Compass insights, providing a detailed review of 2025 global retail food and beverage (F&B) industry performance and a forward-looking outlook for 2026.

2025 Global Trends Confirm Projections 
Circana’s 2024 projection anticipated U.S. F&B industry dollar sales growth between 2% and 4% for 2025, driven by price/mix increases of 1.5% to 3.5%, and volume growth ranging from 0% to 1%. Current estimates align closely, with anticipated dollar sales growth at 3.2%, price/mix at 3%, and volume gains at 0.2%, demonstrating Circana’s accuracy of earlier forecasts and valuable guidance for industry stakeholders as they navigate the remainder of the year and plan for 2026. While rising prices of select commodities, such as cocoa and coffee, have pushed up retail F&B price growth in 2025, price growth in other F&B areas remains more moderate. Retail volumes continue to grow, albeit at a tighter rate than in 2024.

The EMEA region is similarly trending in line with Circana’s expectations: Expect 2025 full-year growth to reach +4% in value. F&B sales in this market are fueled by heightened demand for private-label brands, which now represent 41% of F&B sales despite fewer promotions.

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APAC market performance is also tracking in line with forecasts, showing +3.7% growth in value up to mid-year. Unit growth of +1.4% supports Circana’s expectation that price stabilization would drive unit acceleration in 2025, reaching +1.6% by year end. Although consumer confidence momentum stalled slightly more than anticipated at the time of the forecast, core macroeconomic indicators — particularly in the Australian economy — are improving as anticipated. The second half of 2025 is expected to see a shift toward less trading down and more trading up, as household budgets benefit from the combined effects of stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies.

2026 U.S. Projections 
During the past five years, compounded inflation has driven a cumulative 34% rise in average retail F&B prices. Looking ahead, Circana forecasts U.S. F&B price/mix growth of 3% to 5% in 2026, shaped by ongoing cost pressures, competitive retail pricing, and strategic promotional activity. However, volume growth is expected to remain tight, estimated at -1% to 1%, as consumers adopt more value-driven and multifunctional eating habits. These dynamics suggest dollar sales growth will range from 3% to 5%, indicating continued sector resilience.

“We’ve observed slowing volume growth in the first half of 2025, with a modest increase of 0.4%,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor for Circana. “Consumers are prioritizing in-home food and beverage spending while redefining ‘value’ with an emphasis on convenience and functionality. With these evolving behaviors, the CPG industry must strategically identify ways to stimulate demand and remain profitable. Circana continues to provide the data-driven insights necessary to guide these decisions.”

Key Factors Shaping the Industry 
Circana highlights three pivotal drivers for 2026 and beyond: value, health, and demographic shifts. Value remains increasingly personalized but consistently favors mass, club, and value retailers. E-commerce continues to grow, propelled by advancements from the largest retailers.

Health-conscious behaviors also are reshaping the market. Consumers are prioritizing higher-protein diets, reducing alcohol and snack consumption, and seeking out products with premium, health-driven ingredients. Meanwhile, tighter budgets among low-income and Hispanic households, coupled with demographic changes like declining birth rates and slower immigration trends, are influencing broader category performance.

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